lamrotkassahun-afk/Forecasting-Financial-Inclusion-in-Ethiopia

Build a forecasting system that tracks Ethiopia's digital fi nancial transformation using time series methods # Forecasting-Financial-Inclusion-in-Ethiopia Build a forecasting system that tracks Ethiopia's digital fi nancial transformation using time series methods Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia (2025-2027) 📌 Project OverviewThis project aims to predict the trajectory of financial inclusion in Ethiopia following major market shifts in 2021-2024 (Telebirr launch, M-Pesa entry, and NBE liberalization). Using a Hybrid Predictive Model, we assess whether Ethiopia will meet the National Financial Inclusion Strategy (NFIS-II) target of 70% adult account ownership by 2025/2026.Key Questions Addressed:How did the entry of Safaricom/M-Pesa affect baseline inclusion growth?What is the projected "Inclusion Gap" between current growth and government targets?Can policy-driven shocks accelerate Ethiopia toward 73%+ inclusion by 2027?🛠 Tech StackLanguage: PythonLibraries: Pandas, NumPy, Scikit-Learn (Linear Regression), Seaborn, MatplotlibData Sources: World Bank Global Findex (2011-2024), National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) Annual Reports, GSMA Mobile Economy Reports.📊 Methodology & Workflow1. Data Preparation & EnrichmentWe unified historical Findex data with recent market "events." A custom Event-Indicator Association Matrix was built to quantify the magnitude of specific shocks (e.g., Telebirr adding ~4.75% to account ownership).2. Event Impact ModelingWe modeled impacts as Additive Shocks with a 6-month activation lag, accounting for the time required for infrastructure (4G towers) to translate into consumer usage.3. Scenario ForecastingWe compared two distinct pathways:Conservative Scenario: Baseline linear growth derived from 2011-2024 trends.Accelerated Scenario: Baseline growth + combined magnitudes of the National Digital Payments Strategy and M-Pesa market scaling.🚀 Key Results (2027 Forecasts)Scenario2027 Projected InclusionVerdict vs. 70% TargetConservative (Baseline)61.32%❌ Fails TargetAccelerated (With Shocks)73.07%✅ Exceeds TargetKey Findings:The "Policy Premium": …