mahalsenussi/libya-disaster-prediction-ai

AI-powered disaster prediction system for Libya using machine learning models to predict floods, storms, and other natural disasters # Libya Disaster Prediction AI System A production-grade AI-powered disaster prediction system for Libya, featuring hybrid ensemble learning, time-series intelligence, and real-time risk assessment. ## 🚀 Features - **Hybrid Risk Engine**: Combines XGBoost ML, Isolation Forest anomaly detection, trend analysis, and geographic risk - **Time-Series Intelligence**: Rolling averages, deltas, and spike detection for early warning - **Probability Calibration**: Isotonic calibration for realistic confidence estimates - **Confidence-Based Alerts**: HIGH_CONFIRMED vs HIGH_UNCERTAIN classification - **Risk Stability Tracking**: Monitors risk trends (rising/falling/stable) across predictions - **Early Warning Detection**: Pre-disaster pattern recognition - **Real-Time Feedback Loop**: API for collecting real-world event verification - **Geographic Awareness**: Coastal proximity and elevation-based risk factors ## 📊 Architecture ``` Data Layer ├── Weather API (air pressure, quality, risk scores) ├── Marine API (wave height, wind speed, sea level) ├── News API (article counts, keyword analysis) └── Geolocation (lat, lon, elevation, distance to coast) ``` ## 🌍 Data Sources The system integrates data from multiple sources to provide comprehensive disaster risk assessment: ### 1. Copernicus Marine Service - **Provider**: Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) - **Data**: Sea level anomalies, wave height, wave period, wind speed, swell wave height - **Coverage**: Mediterranean Sea, Libyan coastal waters - **Access**: Requires API key from Copernicus Marine - **Usage**: Marine conditions that contribute to flood and storm surge risks ### 2. Weather API - **Provider**: OpenWeatherMap or similar weather service - **Data**: Air pressure, air quality index, weather risk scores, temperature - **Coverage**: Libyan cities (Tripoli, Benghazi, Derna, etc.) - **Access**: Requires API key from weather service provider - **Usage**: Atmospheric conditions that indicate s …