mahi7000/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Analysis & Forecasting (2011–2028) An end-to-end data engineering, statistical impact modeling, and interactive forecasting platform analyzing financial inclusion trajectories, digital payment adoption, and macro-policy interventions in Ethiopia. --- ## Project Overview This repository provides quantitative frameworks and interactive visualization tools designed for policy research and strategic decision-making in digital financial services. It evaluates progress from historical Global Findex benchmarks (2011–2024), quantifies non-linear policy/market event impacts, forecasts financial access and digital payment usage (2025–2028), and tracks national alignment targets. ### Key Capabilities - **Schema-Aware Data Ingestion & Wrangling:** Standardized ingestion pipelines handling sparse historical survey observations and granular transactional metrics. - **Event Impact Modeling:** Mathematical quantification of catalyst events (e.g., Telebirr launch, Fayda Digital ID e-KYC rollout, EthSwitch interoperability) using non-linear temporal logistic ramp-up functions. - **Scenario Forecasting:** Trend regression models augmented by policy impact vectors under **Baseline**, **Base Policy**, **Optimistic**, and **Pessimistic** macroeconomic scenarios. - **Interactive Decision Dashboard:** Multi-page Streamlit dashboard equipped with Plotly figures, key metric indicators, scenario simulation tools, and raw data export functionality. --- ## 🛠️ Project Structure ```text . ├── dashboard/ │ └── app.py # Multi-page interactive Streamlit web application ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Historical Global Findex & macroeconomic datasets │ └── processed/ # Schema-aligned merged data, matrices, and forecast outputs ├── notebooks/ │ ├── 01_data_wrangling.ipynb # Data ingestion, schema validation, & preprocessing │ ├── 02_exploratory_analysis.ipynb # Channel dynamics & P2P vs. ATM crossover …