MaroofOA/Climate-Change-Analysis-in-West-Africa

# Climate Change Analysis in West Africa: Forecasting Temperature Trends for Enhanced Resilience ## Overview This project aims to analyze historical temperature data for 15 West African countries over the period 1980–2022 to study climate change trends and assess their broader implications. Given the growing impact of climate change on key sectors such as agriculture, water resources, and public health in Africa, this project compares three different time series forecasting models (ARIMA, Prophet, and VAR) to predict temperature trends. By comparing the models, the project seeks to determine which one is most effective for accurate climate forecasting in this region. ## Problem Statement Africa faces significant challenges due to climate change, especially in areas such as agriculture, water resources, and public health. This project aims to analyze historical temperature data (1980-2022) from West African countries to understand climate change patterns and their implications, with a focus on temperature trends and their broader effects. ## Data Source The data was sourced from the National Centers for Environmental Information (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) through the Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCNd) dataset. It includes temperature records from 72 weather stations across the 15 West African countries. - Access the dataset here ## Objectives 1. Investigate long-term temperature trends across West Africa, identifying variations and patterns. 2. Develop location-specific forecasting models to predict extreme temperatures using historical data. 3. Compare ARIMA, Prophet, and VAR time series models and analyze their prediction accuracy. ## Data Description The dataset consists of daily temperature records (minimum, maximum, and average) from January 1st, 1980 to December 31st, 2022 across 15 West African countries. The stations are identified by latitude, longitude, elevation, and country. - Mean Temperature: 24.63°C - Stan …