melatdagnachew/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia ## Overview This project was completed as part of the Selam Analytics Financial Inclusion Forecasting Challenge. The objective is to develop a forecasting system that predicts Ethiopia's financial inclusion progress by modeling historical financial inclusion indicators, infrastructure development, operator statistics, policy interventions, and major market events. The project follows the World Bank Global Findex Framework and focuses on forecasting two key indicators: - **Access** – Account Ownership Rate - **Usage** – Digital Payment Adoption Rate Forecasts will be generated for **2025–2027**. --- # Business Problem Ethiopia has experienced rapid digital financial transformation through initiatives such as: - Telebirr launch (2021) - Safaricom Ethiopia market entry (2022) - M-Pesa Ethiopia launch (2023) - Fayda Digital ID rollout - Expansion of 4G infrastructure - EthioPay Instant Payment System Despite these developments, the Global Findex 2024 reports that only **49%** of Ethiopian adults own a financial account, only three percentage points higher than in 2021. This project investigates the drivers of financial inclusion and develops forecasting models to estimate future Access and Usage indicators. --- # Project Structure ```text ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ │ ├── processed/ │ ├── notebooks/ │ ├── task1_data_enrichment.ipynb │ ├── task2_eda.ipynb │ ├── reports/ │ ├── data_enrichment_log.md │ ├── Task1_Task2_Report.pdf │ └── figures/ │ ├── dashboard/ │ ├── models/ │ ├── src/ │ ├── README.md ├── requirements.txt └── .gitignore ``` --- # Dataset The project uses the starter dataset provided by Selam Analytics. Files include: - **ethiopia_fi_unified_data.csv** - **reference_codes.csv** The dataset combines financial inclusion observations, policy events, infrastructure indicators, and strategic tar …