mercyvee/DROUGHT-FORECASTING-IN-KENYA-USING-MACHINE-LEARNING

This repo is basically to store and collaborate with other members on an upcoming project I am doing. # DROUGHT-FORECASTING-IN-KENYA-USING-MACHINE-LEARNING Drought is one of the most severe natural hazards impacting many regions but is more pronounced in arid and semi-arid regions like Kenya. It adversely affects agricultural productivity, water resources and overall socio-economic stability. The increasing frequency of extreme climate conditions due to climate change has resulted in significant economic and political implications, making climate change a universal concern in terms of risk management. Climate change acts as risk multiplier increasing the likelihood of vulnerabilities and intensifying the impacts of extreme weather conditions. This research aims to develop a machine learning-based forecasting model to assess and predict the impacts of drought using these data sets; raingauge data, maximum and minimum temperature and sea surface temperature (SST). Maximum and minimum temperature data provides an insight into level of evaporation and transpiration while raingauge data provides essential insights into precipitation patterns. Understanding the drivers of drought is crucial for developing effective mitigation strategies and improving resilience to drought impacts. This study will employ machine learning algorithms to analyse the relationship between these variables and drought occurrences. By utilizing historical data spanning multiple years, the research will establish predictive models capable of forecasting drought conditions and assessing their potential impacts on agriculture and water resources. Data sources include meteorological stations for raingauge data and maximum and minimum temperatures and oceanography data for SST. The analysis will incorporate advanced statistical methods and machine learning techniques to enhance predictive accuracy and reliability. Expected outcomes include a comprehensive understanding of drought dynamics in Kenya and a set of predictive models that can assist in mitigating the adverse impacts of drought on food securi …