Miftah-Ebrahim/Forecasting-Digital-Finance-Ethiopia

A predictive analytics platform quantifying Ethiopia’s digital financial transformation. This project models the "Access vs. Usage" gap using sparse-data forecasting techniques, event-impact matrices, and socio-economic enablers. Features 2025–2027 projections for the National Bank of Ethiopia’s inclusion targets. # 🇪🇹 EthioPulse: The Cognitive Engine for Digital Finance *A Strategic Forecasting Platform for the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE)* **Explore the Dashboard** | **Read the Paper** | **Request Demo** --- ## 🚀 Executive Summary In 2021, Ethiopia witnessed a digital revolution with the launch of **Telebirr**, registering over **75 million users** in under three years. However, a paradox emerged: **Global Findex** data revealed that actual "Account Ownership" only grew marginally (approx. +3%) during this same explosive period. **EthioPulse** was engineered to solve this **"Growth Slowdown Paradox."** By moving beyond simple extrapolation, we built a **Structural Event-Intervention Model** that quantifies the impact of major policy "shocks"—from the Telebirr launch to the liberalized entry of Safaricom and the upcoming **Fayda Digital ID**. Our system doesn't just predict the future; it simulates the impact of specific NBE policy decisions, offering a roadmap to the coveted **60% Financial Inclusion** target by 2027. --- ## 🔍 The Analytical Journey ### Phase 1: Diagnosing the "Usage Gap" We began by harmonizing fragmented data sources—spanning telecom reports, NBE directives, and World Bank surveys—into a **Unified Data Schema v2**. > **Key Finding**: The infrastructure is ready (**51% 4G Coverage**), but trust is the bottleneck. The disparity between *Registrations* (Access) and *Active Wallets* (Usage) suggests a massive dormant user base awaiting verification. Figure 1: The "Jaws of Dormancy" – Divergence between registrations and verified Findex ownership. See Technical Details on Data Enrichment We enforced a strict enrichment protocol to bridge data gaps: - **Observation Enforced**: `ACC_4G_COVERAGE` hard-coded at 51.0% (Source: Ethio Telecom 2024). - **Event Enforced**: `EVT_FAYDA_PILOT` (June 2023) added as a high-magnitude infrastructure shock. - **Audit Trail**: Full lineage available in `reports/data_enrichment_log.md`. --- # …