muhajirhualis/KAIM_Week10

Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia # **Interim Report: Financial Inclusion Forecasting in Ethiopia** **Prepared By: Muhajer Hualis** *Interim Submission – 1 February 2026* --- ## **1. Understanding the Business Objective** Ethiopia is undergoing a historic digital financial transformation. With over **54 million Telebirr users**, the entry of **M-Pesa (10.8M users)**, and the landmark milestone where **P2P digital transfers surpassed ATM cash withdrawals**, the country stands at an inflection point. Yet, the **2024 Global Findex survey reveals a paradox**: only **49% of Ethiopian adults have a financial account**—a mere **+3 percentage points** since 2021. This stagnation, despite massive mobile money adoption, raises critical questions for policymakers and industry stakeholders. ### **Consortium Goals** Selam Analytics has been engaged by a consortium comprising: - **Development Finance Institutions** (tracking progress toward SDG 8.10), - **Mobile Money Operators** (Telebirr, M-Pesa) seeking market intelligence, - **National Bank of Ethiopia** (monitoring NFIS-II targets). Their shared objective: **forecast Ethiopia’s financial inclusion trajectory for 2025–2027** across two core dimensions defined by the **World Bank’s Global Findex**: 1. **Access**: *Account Ownership Rate* (% of adults with a bank or mobile money account). 2. **Usage**: *Digital Payment Adoption Rate* (% using digital payments in the past year). Timely, evidence-based forecasts are essential to: - Guide policy interventions (e.g., digital ID rollout, agent network expansion), - Inform private-sector investment (e.g., SuperApp features, credit products), - Track progress toward Ethiopia’s **NFIS-II target of 70% account ownership by 2025**. --- ## **2. Discussion of Completed Work and Initial Analysis** ### **Task 1: Data Exploration and Enrichment** We adopted the provided **unified schema**, which structures all records—observations, events, impact links, and targets—into a single table. Key design principles were re …