Mupingatl/zimbabwe-exports-afcfta

Zimbabwe export structure analysis 1990–2024, AfCFTA # Zimbabwe's Export Basket to Southern Africa **Long-Run Commodity Dependence, Corridor Geography, and Early AfCFTA Signals** > Tafadzwa Mupingashato & Sphephelo P. Zubane > Thabo Mbeki African School of Public and International Affairs, UNISA > 2024 --- ## Overview This repository contains the data, code, and outputs supporting the paper *Zimbabwe's Export Basket to Southern Africa: Long-Run Commodity Dependence, Corridor Geography, and Early AfCFTA Signals*. The study examines the long-run evolution of Zimbabwe's intra-African export structure over **1990–2024**, with a focus on: - Structural persistence in export composition (minerals, tobacco) and destination (South Africa) - Product and destination concentration using the **Hirschman–Herfindahl Index (HHI)** - Whether the early **AfCFTA** implementation phase (2019–2024) coincides with structural diversification - The role of macro-financial constraints, commodity cycles, and corridor geography **Key finding:** During the early AfCFTA window, exports to Africa increased in value but product and destination concentration did not decline sustainably — suggesting growth along the *intensive margin* rather than genuine diversification. --- ## Repository Structure ``` zimbabwe-exports-afcfta/ │ ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Original data from UN Comtrade and ITC Trade Map (HS-2/AG2 level) │ └── processed/ # Cleaned and transformed datasets used in analysis │ ├── scripts/ # Data cleaning, indicator construction, and visualisation scripts │ ├── figures/ # All charts and figures as used in the paper │ ├── results/ # Output tables (HHI, top-product shares, extensive margin measures) │ ├── docs/ # Manuscript and supplementary materials │ └── README.md ``` --- ## Data Sources | Source | Description | Coverage | |--------|-------------|----------| | UN Comtrade | Bilateral trade flows at HS-2 level | 1990–2024 | | ITC Trade Map | Ex …