Muslihm/ethiopia-fi-forecast
Domain:
socioeconomicRecord type:
project
Creator:
Mus
Host:
Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia
# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting System
## Overview
A comprehensive forecasting system for tracking Ethiopia's digital financial transformation using time series methods, event impact modeling, and interactive visualization.
## Features
- 📊 **Data Enrichment**: Combined Global Findex, IMF FAS, GSMA, ITU, NBE data
- 📈 **Exploratory Analysis**: 6 key insights with visualizations
- 🔧 **Impact Modeling**: Event-indicator association matrix
- 🔮 **Forecasting**: 2025-2027 projections with scenarios
- 🎯 **Interactive Dashboard**: Streamlit application with 4+ visualizations
## Quick Start
```bash
# Install dependencies
pip install -r requirements.txt
# Run complete pipeline
python task1.py && python task2_fixed.py && python task3_fixed.py && python task4_fixed.py
# Launch dashboard
streamlit run dashboard/app.py
Project Structure
text
ethiopia-fi-forecast/
├── dashboard/
│ └── app.py # Streamlit dashboard
├── data/
│ ├── processed/ # Enriched dataset
│ └── forecasts/ # Task 4 outputs
├── models/ # Task 3 outputs
├── reports/
│ └── figures/ # All visualizations
├── tasks/ # Task scripts
└── requirements.txt
Tasks Summary
Task Description Status
1 Data Exploration & Enrichment ✅ Complete
2 Exploratory Data Analysis ✅ Complete
3 Event Impact Modeling ✅ Complete
4 Forecasting 2025-2027 ✅ Complete
5 Dashboard Development ✅ Complete
Key Findings
Account Ownership: 14% (2011) → 49% (2024)
Mobile Money: 4.7% (2021) → 9.4% (2024)
P2P/ATM: 1.08x crossover (2024/25) - Historic milestone
4G Coverage: 37.5% (2023) → 70.8% (2025)
Gender Gap: 20pp persists, requires intervention
2027 Forecast: 55-57% account ownership
Technologies Used
Python 3.8+
Streamlit (Dashboard)
Plotly (Visualizations)
Pandas/NumPy (Data Processing)
Scikit-learn (Modeling)
Matplotlib/Seaborn (Static Charts)
Data Sources
Global Findex (2011-2024)
IMF Financial Access Survey
GSMA Mo …