nahdes/ethiopia-fi-forecast

Forecasting Ethiopia's financial inclusion trajectory (2025-2027) using event-driven modeling & mobile money data # Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting Project *Forecasting Ethiopia's path to 60% financial inclusion by 2027 using historical trends, event impact modeling, and scenario analysis* --- ## 📌 Executive Summary This project delivers a comprehensive forecasting system for Ethiopia's financial inclusion indicators (2025–2027) on behalf of **Selam Analytics**, a data analytics consultancy serving Ethiopia's National Bank and financial inclusion stakeholders. Our analysis reveals that Ethiopia is experiencing a **significant growth slowdown** in account ownership (+3pp 2021–2024 vs. +11pp 2017–2021), making the national 60% target challenging under current trajectories. While base-case forecasts project 52–55% ownership by 2027, achieving 60% requires accelerated growth driven by mobile money competition (M-Pesa), interoperability, and infrastructure investments. --- ## 👥 Client & Stakeholders | Role | Organization | Use Case | |------|--------------|----------| | **Primary Client** | Selam Analytics | Deliver forecasting insights to National Bank of Ethiopia | | **End Users** | National Bank of Ethiopia | Policy planning, NFIS-II target tracking | | **Secondary Users** | Financial Service Providers | Market opportunity assessment | | **Data Partners** | World Bank (Findex), GSMA | Data validation and benchmarking | --- ## 🎯 Business Problem Ethiopia's National Financial Inclusion Strategy II (NFIS-II) targets **60% adult account ownership by 2025**, yet recent data shows: - Account ownership grew only **+3 percentage points (pp)** between 2021–2024 (vs. +11pp in prior period) - **65M+ mobile money accounts** registered, but survey-based ownership remains at **49%** - Critical questions unanswered: 1. What drives financial inclusion in Ethiopia's unique context? 2. How do major events (Telebirr launch, M-Pesa entry, interoperability) impact outcomes? 3. What will inclusion look like in 2025–2027 under different scenarios? --- ## 🔬 Methodology: 5-Task Pi …