NaimaAhmedin/ethiopia-fi-forecast

🇪🇹 Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia Interim Submission – Tasks 1 & 2 This project builds a data-driven system to forecast Ethiopia’s financial inclusion using time series data, national events, and policy interventions. It follows the Global Findex framework and models two core pillars: ACCESS — Account Ownership USAGE — Digital Payment Adoption 📂 Project Structure ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Starter dataset │ ├── processed/ # Enriched + cleaned data │ ├── notebooks/ # Analysis notebooks │ ├── 01_data_exploration.ipynb │ └── 02_eda_analysis.ipynb │ ├── reports/ │ ├── figures/ # Charts from EDA │ └── data_enrichment_log.md │ ├── dashboard/ # (Future task) ├── models/ # (Future task) ├── src/ ├── requirements.txt ├── README.md └── .gitignore 🧠 Unified Data Design This dataset follows a neutral schema: Events are NOT assigned to pillars. Their effects are captured using impact_link records. record_type category pillar Meaning observation (empty) YES Measured indicator target (empty) YES Policy goal event YES (empty) Neutral event impact_link (empty) YES Event → indicator effect This avoids bias and allows one event to affect many pillars. 🧪 Task 1 – Data Exploration & Enrichment ✔ Completed Loaded unified dataset Reviewed schema & reference codes Analyzed: record types pillars sources confidence levels time coverage Added new indicators & events Documented all changes in: