# π Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting
> π **Predicting Ethiopia's digital financial transformation with time series analysis**
Built for **Selam Analytics** in partnership with development finance institutions and the National Bank of Ethiopia to forecast Ethiopia's progress on financial inclusion using World Bank Global Findex methodology.
## π― Project Overview
Ethiopia is undergoing a rapid digital financial revolution:
- π± **Telebirr**: 54M+ users since 2021 launch
- π° **M-Pesa**: 10M+ users since 2023 entry
- π¦ **Interoperable P2P**: Now surpasses ATM withdrawals
- π **The Challenge**: Only 49% account ownership in 2024 (+3pp from 2021)
**Our mission**: Understand what drives financial inclusion and predict Ethiopia's progress through 2027.
## π What We Forecast
### Access Indicators π¦
- **Account Ownership Rate** - Adults with financial accounts
- **Gender Gap Analysis** - Male vs female inclusion
- **Regional Coverage** - Urban vs rural access
### Usage Indicators π³
- **Digital Payment Adoption** - Mobile money, cards, online payments
- **Mobile Money Penetration** - Active vs registered accounts
- **Payment Use Cases** - P2P, merchant, bill pay, wages
## ποΈ Project Structure
```
ethiopia-financial-inclusion-forecast/
βββ π data/ # Datasets & sources
β βββ raw/ # Original data (never modify)
β βββ processed/ # Analysis-ready data
βββ π notebooks/ # Jupyter analysis
βββ π§ src/ # Python modules
βββ π§ͺ tests/ # Test suites
βββ π reports/ # Analysis reports
βββ π± dashboard/ # Interactive dashboard
βββ π€ models/ # Trained models
βββ π docs/ # Documentation
```
## π Quick Start
### Prerequisites π
- Python 3.9+
- pandas, numpy, matplotlib, seaborn
- plotly, dash, scikit-learn
### Installation β‘
```bash
# Clone the repo
git clone "github_repo_name"
# Setup environment
pytho β¦