nardos-tsige/ethiopia-fi-forecast

Forecasting financial inclusion in Ethiopia # Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting ## Project Overview This project develops a forecasting system to track Ethiopia's digital financial transformation using time series methods. The system predicts Ethiopia's progress on two core dimensions of financial inclusion as defined by the World Bank's Global Findex: - **Access** — Account Ownership Rate - **Usage** — Digital Payment Adoption Rate The forecasting system was developed for **Selam Analytics**, a financial technology consulting firm specializing in emerging markets, engaged by a consortium of stakeholders including development finance institutions, mobile money operators, and the National Bank of Ethiopia. ## Key Findings - Account ownership grew from 14% (2011) to 49% (2024) - Critical slowdown detected: Only +3 percentage points growth between 2021-2024 despite Telebirr (54M+ users) and M-Pesa (10M+ users) expansion - 2025-2027 Forecast: Account ownership projected to reach 69.4% by 2027 (base case) - 60% Target: Ethiopia likely to reach the 60% account ownership target by 2027 in base case scenario - Digital payment adoption shows strong growth potential with mobile money penetration increasing ## Project Structure ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Starter dataset │ │ ├── ethiopia_fi_unified_data.xlsx │ │ └── reference_codes.xlsx │ └── processed/ # Analysis-ready data │ └── enriched_dataset.csv # Enriched with new observations, events, impact links ├── notebooks/ │ ├── 01_data_exploration.ipynb # Task 1: Data exploration and enrichment │ ├── 02_eda.ipynb # Task 2: Exploratory data analysis │ ├── 03_impact_modeling.ipynb # Task 3: Event impact modeling │ └── 04_forecasting.ipynb # Task 4: Forecasting access and usage ├── src/ │ ├── init.py │ └── data_utils.py # Data utility functions ├── dashboard/ │ └── app.py # Streamlit dashboard application ├── reports/ │ ├── figures/ # Generated visualizations │ │ ├── 01_account_ownership_trend.png │ │ ├── 02_gender_gap.png │ │ ├── 03_digital_pa …