Nelson-Wasike/-Comparative-Time-Series-Analysis-of-Stock-Prices-Before-and-After-Elections-in-Kenya-

Time series analysis of stock prices before and after Kenya’s 2013, 2017 & 2022 elections. Uses event study methodology to assess abnormal returns, market trends & investor sentiment on the NSE. Includes regression, ANOVA, and a Streamlit dashboard for interactive insights. # Comparative Time Series Analysis of Stock Prices Before and After Elections in Kenya 🇰🇪 This repository presents a collaborative research project conducted at Laikipia University, analyzing how presidential elections influence stock market behavior in Kenya. Using event study methodology and time series analysis, we examine abnormal returns, market trends, and investor sentiment surrounding the 2013, 2017, and 2022 elections. # Project Overview Kenya’s elections are pivotal moments that shape investor confidence, government policy, and market volatility. This study investigates: - 📈 Statistical correlation between election cycles and stock price fluctuations on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) - 🧭 Impact of political stability and government policy on investor sentiment - 🔍 Patterns in abnormal returns before and after elections - 🧮 Regression and ANOVA analysis to quantify market reactions # Methodology We adopted the Event Study Methodology (MacKinlay, 1996), focusing on: - A sample of 62 companies listed on the NSE - NSE 20 Index as a proxy for market performance - Event windows: 1 year before and after each election - Tools: SPSS (v27), Excel, and statistical modeling # Key Findings - Abnormal returns were significantly lower before elections and higher after elections - Market returns and expected returns were higher before elections, suggesting investor anticipation - Political stability post-election is crucial for sustaining market confidence # Recommendations - Investors: Consider buying stocks after elections and selling before, when returns peak - Policymakers: Ensure post-election stability to protect market performance - Researchers: Explore behavioral finance and sentiment analysis in future studies # Authors - Nelson Wasike - Brian Wangai - Millicent Mukami Supervised by: Dr. Poti Owili Abaja # Extras - Appendices include raw data, coded returns, and company lists - Historical context on Kenya’s political evolution and its econom …