noamesij366/ghana-flood-risk-protection-gap

Actuarial frequency-severity analysis of flood disaster risk and the insurance protection gap in Ghana (2001–2023), using EM-DAT data. # Flood Disaster Risk Assessment and the Insurance Protection Gap in Ghana Actuarial frequency-severity analysis of flood events in Ghana (2001–2023), using data from the EM-DAT International Disaster Database. ## Summary - 25 flood events recorded between 2001 and 2023 - Poisson model estimates a 66.3% annual probability of at least one flood - Lognormal severity model projects over 2 million persons affected in a 1-in-50-year event - Insured losses across all events: **$0**, representing a 100% insurance protection gap ## Methodology - **Frequency modelling:** Poisson distribution (MLE), Chi-square goodness-of-fit - **Severity modelling:** Lognormal and Pareto distributions compared via AIC - **Return period estimation:** Inverse CDF of fitted Lognormal distribution