oim1999/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecast Forecasting system for Ethiopia's digital financial transformation, built for a consortium of development finance institutions, mobile money operators, and the National Bank of Ethiopia. The project tracks and forecasts two Global Findex pillars: - **Access** — Account Ownership Rate (`ACC_OWNERSHIP`) - **Usage** — Digital Payment Adoption (proxied via `USG_P2P_COUNT`, `ACC_MM_ACCOUNT`, `USG_TELEBIRR_USERS`, and related transaction indicators) ## Project Status | Task | Description | Status | |------|-------------|--------| | 1 | Data Exploration & Enrichment | ✅ Complete (merged from `task-1`) | | 2 | Exploratory Data Analysis | ✅ Complete (merged from `task-2`) | | 3 | Event Impact Modeling | ✅ Complete | | 4 | Forecasting Access & Usage | ✅ Complete | | 5 | Dashboard Development | ✅ Complete | ## Data & Schema This project uses a **unified schema**: every record (`observation`, `event`, `impact_link`, `target`) lives in the same table and shares the same columns. The `record_type` column determines how each row should be interpreted. **Key design principle: events are not pre-assigned to pillars.** A launch like Telebirr affects both Access and Usage; forcing it into one pillar would bias the analysis. Instead: | Record Type | `category` | `pillar` | |---|---|---| | `observation` | empty | ✅ measured dimension | | `target` | empty | ✅ goal dimension | | `event` | ✅ event type (policy, product_launch, ...) | empty — no pre-assignment | | `impact_link` | empty | ✅ pillar of the *affected* indicator | `impact_link` records connect an `event` to an indicator via `parent_id` (the event's `record_id`), capturing the estimated direction, magnitude, lag, and evidence basis of the effect. See `data/raw/README.md` for the full schema documentation ## Repository Structure ``` ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Starter dataset + reference codes (as provided) │ └── processed/ # Enric …