okeson99/The-Hedger

Quantitative risk management tools for African agriculture. github.com ## 📄 White Paper Download The Hedger White Paper v1.0 Download The Hedger White Paper v2.0 # 🌾🍫 The Hedger **Quantitative risk management tools for African agriculture.** Open-source. Data-driven. Built for the farmers who feed the continent. --- ## The Problem African farmers face volatile commodity prices with limited access to hedging instruments. Existing tools are either too expensive, too complex, or non-existent for local markets. - **Maize farmers** watch CBOT corn futures move daily with no way to lock in prices - **Cocoa farmers** track London Cocoa Futures (LIFFE) while bearing 100% of price risk - **Cooperatives** negotiate with buyers blindly, unaware of their true risk exposure The tools exist globally. The access does not — until now. --- ## The Solution The Hedger is a web-based quantitative risk platform that helps Nigerian farmers and cooperatives: - **Estimate optimal hedge ratios** using local spot prices + global futures data - **Run scenario analysis** across price, basis, and currency risk - **Receive plain-language recommendations** with visual P&L outcomes - **Compare multi-crop risk profiles** in a single dashboard **No derivatives background required.** Complex quantitative finance, translated into actionable guidance. --- ## Crops Supported | Crop | Global Benchmark | Status | Key Document | |------|-----------------|--------|-------------| | **Maize** | CBOT Corn Futures | ✅ Live | White Paper v1.0 | | **Cocoa** | London Cocoa Futures (LIFFE) | ✅ Live | Cocoa Farmer Guide,White Paper v2.pdf | | **Palm Oil** | BMD Palm Oil Futures | 🔄 In Research | — | | **Sesame** | TOCOM / India Sesame | 📋 Planned | — | | **Groundnut** | CBOT / Local benchmarks | 📋 Planned | — | --- ## Key Findings ### Maize (24-month analysis, Jan 2024–Dec 2025) - **Nigerian maize wholesale**: ₦1,070–₦1,260/kg - **CBOT corn (NGN-adjusted)**: ₦160–₦300/kg - **Mean basis**: ₦884/kg …