oluwakomojoe/FORECASTING-OF-COVID-19-MORTALITY-RATE-IN-WEST-AFRICAN-COUNTRIES

FORECASTING OF COVID-19 MORTALITY RATE IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES PROGRAM # COVID-19 Forecasting System for West African Region This project forecasts COVID-19 death cases in West African countries using multiple time series forecasting models including ARIMA, Prophet, Random Forest, and LightGBM. ## Project Structure ``` ├── app.py # Streamlit web application for deployment and visualization ├── utils.py # Utility functions for data processing and forecasting ├── data_analysis.py # Data analysis and model training functions ├── requirements.txt # Python package dependencies └── README.md # This file ``` ## Features - **Data Acquisition**: Automatically downloads COVID-19 data from Johns Hopkins University GitHub repository - **Exploratory Data Analysis**: Time series decomposition, stationarity testing, ACF/PACF analysis - **Multiple Forecasting Models**: - ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) - Prophet (Facebook's time series forecasting) - Random Forest Regressor - LightGBM - **Interactive Web Application**: Built with Streamlit for easy visualization and interaction - **West African Focus**: Covers 16 WAFR member countries ## Installation ### Prerequisites - Python 3.8 or higher - pip (Python package manager) ### Step 1: Clone or Download the Project Navigate to the project directory: ```bash cd "d:\PROJECTS\Fuoye Projects\Fuoye Covid 19 Project\Program" ``` ### Step 2: Create a Virtual Environment (Recommended) #### On Windows (PowerShell): ```powershell python -m venv venv .\venv\Scripts\Activate.ps1 ``` #### On Windows (Command Prompt): ```cmd python -m venv venv venv\Scripts\activate.bat ``` #### On macOS/Linux: ```bash python3 -m venv venv source venv/bin/activate ``` ### Step 3: Install Dependencies Install all required packages from requirements.txt: ```bash pip install -r requirements.txt ``` This will install: - **numpy** - Numerical computing library - **pandas** - Data manipu …