osulayman/nigeria-food-price-analysis

Analysis of WFP food price data across Nigeria (2002–2023) using Python. Covers price trends, regional disparities, Naira depreciation, seasonality, retail vs wholesale gaps and commodity affordability across 14 states. # Nigeria Food Price Analysis (2002–2023) ## Overview A comprehensive analysis of food price dynamics in Nigeria using World Food Programme (WFP) VAM monitoring data covering 51,106 price records across 14 states, 42 commodities and 21 years (2002–2023). ## Key Questions Answered - How have food prices changed over 21 years? - Which states face the highest food costs and why? - How much of the price increase is Naira depreciation vs real inflation? - When during the year are households most vulnerable? - Which commodities have become unaffordable since 2020? - How large is the retail markup over wholesale prices? ## Key Findings | Finding | Detail | |---|---| | Price increase since 2020 | 54–89% across all major staples | | Naira depreciation | ₦120/$ in 2002 → ₦598/$ in 2023 | | Conflict premium | Borno and Adamawa 50–60% above national average | | Retail markup | 40–100% above wholesale consistently | | Lean season premium | 12–15% above harvest season lows | | Most affected foods | Sorghum +89%, Gari +88%, Groundnuts +83% | ## Tools Used - Python 3 - Pandas — data cleaning and analysis - Matplotlib — data visualisation - Seaborn — heatmap - Jupyter Notebook ## Data Source World Food Programme — VAM Food Security Analysis Available at: data.humdata.org ## How to Run 1. Clone this repository 2. Install requirements: `pip install -r requirements.txt` 3. Open `nigeria_food_price_analysis.ipynb` in Jupyter 4. Run all cells from top to bottom ## Charts Generated | Chart | Description | |---|---| | Price Trends | 8 staple commodities 2002–2023 | | Regional Comparison | State-level price gap vs national average | | Naira Depreciation | NGN vs USD and implied exchange rate | | Seasonality | Monthly price patterns and lean season | | Category Analysis | 6 food categories trend and ranking | | Retail vs Wholesale | Markup percentage and absolute gap | | Affordability Ranking | Before vs after 2020 comparison | | State × Commodity Heatmap | Operational price reference …