oyesanyf/nigeria-tax-impact-model

# 🇳🇬 Nigeria Tax Policy Impact Assessment System > **An advanced macroeconomic engine leveraging AutoML, Monte Carlo simulations, and Time-Series Forecasting to evaluate the impact of Nigeria's fiscal reforms.** --- ## 🏛️ Project Vision This system is designed to provide policymakers, researchers, and financial analysts with a data-driven toolkit to assess the 2025 Tax Act. It specifically models the elimination of **SME Company Income Tax (CIT)** and the enhancement of **VAT collection efficiency** through digitalization. --- ## 🚀 Key Features ### 🧠 Intelligent Modeling - **AutoML (TPOT):** Automatically discovers the optimal machine learning pipeline (StandardScaler, RFE, Regressors) using Genetic Programming. - **Time-Series Aware:** Training respects chronological order using `TimeSeriesSplit` to prevent "look-ahead" bias. - **AutoARIMA:** Precisely forecasts external factors like Crude Oil prices for the 2026 horizon. ### 🎲 Risk Analysis - **Monte Carlo Simulations:** Runs 10,000+ stochastic iterations to quantify the probability of economic outcomes. - **Dynamic Scenarios:** Configure policy parameters (Tax rates, VAT recovery, Inflation shocks) via `scenarios_config.json` or CLI flags. - **Recession Risk Metrics:** Direct calculation of the probability that GDP growth falls below 0%. ### 📄 Professional Reporting - **Multi-Format Output:** Automatically generates **Interactive HTML**, **Formal PDF**, and **Editable Word (.docx)** reports. - **Rich Visualizations:** 6+ high-resolution charts including KDE distributions, Box Plots, and Feature Correlation Heatmaps. - **AI Executive Summary:** OpenAI-powered analysis providing deep context, methodology, and policy implications. --- ## 🛠️ Quick Start ### 1. Installation ```bash git clone github.com cd nigeria-tax-impact-model pip install -r requirements.txt ``` ### 2. Basic Execution Run the full pipeline with a single command: ```bash python tax_model. …