Pheezo-SQ/nigeria-economic-shock-analysis

Data analysis of Nigeria's 2023 fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate unification — quantifying the inflation shock, naira collapse, sector impact, and poverty trajectory using NBS, CBN, and World Bank data (2019–2026). # Nigeria Economic Shock Analysis: Subsidy Removal & Currency Reform (2019–2026) **Analyst:** Philip Ohejira | **Project:** 10 of 14 | **Date:** May 2026 **Tools:** Python · Power BI · Matplotlib · Seaborn · Scikit-learn **Data Sources:** NBS · CBN · World Bank · NBS Petrol Price Watch --- ## Problem Statement On **29 May 2023**, the Tinubu administration removed Nigeria's fuel subsidy, pushing petrol prices from ₦185 to ₦617 per litre overnight — a 234% increase in a single day. Fifteen days later, the Central Bank of Nigeria unified its exchange rate windows, devaluing the naira by over 40% against the dollar overnight, from ₦460 to ₦750 per USD. These two decisions triggered Nigeria's worst cost-of-living crisis in nearly three decades. Yet no public analytical resource consolidates the full data story — what happened, which sectors were hit hardest, how the naira collapse amplified the inflation shock, and where the economy is heading. This project fills that gap. --- ## Objectives 1. Quantify the inflation shock before and after the May–June 2023 policy events 2. Analyse the exchange rate collapse and its relationship with headline inflation 3. Identify which CPI sectors were most severely impacted 4. Assess GDP and poverty trajectory against petrol price movements 5. Forecast Nigeria's inflation trajectory through end-2026 --- ## Data Sources | Source | Dataset | Format | |---|---|---| | NBS (nigerianstat.gov.ng) | Monthly CPI — Headline, Food, Core (2019–2026) | CSV | | CBN (cbn.gov.ng) | Monthly exchange rate — Official & Parallel (2019–2026) | CSV | | World Bank (data.worldbank.org) | Annual GDP growth & poverty headcount ratio | CSV | | NBS Petrol Price Watch | Annual petrol pump price (2019–2026) | CSV | --- ## Project Structure ``` Nigeria-Economic-Shock-Analysis/ ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Original source CSV files │ └── processed/ # Cleaned and merged datasets ├── notebooks/ │ └── nigeria_econo …