prisdco/Natural-Disaster-Impact-on-the-Economy

The dataset was collected from two agencies in Nigeria, NiMet and the Ministry of Finance. This data collected from NiMet, which spans from 2010 – 2023. The dataset focusses on southwest, Nigeria. The southwest has a history of flood disasters # Natural-Disaster-Impact-on-the-Economy Natural disasters’ effects can threaten the firmness of the economy but are often underestimated. Due to the underestimation of this threat, current economic models in Nigeria don’t often incorporate its impact on key economic indicators, thereby hindering the development of effective strategies to mitigate its effect on the economy. Using the time series model (SARIMA and PROPHET), this research aims to understand natural disasters’ impact (floods) on Nigeria’s economy (crude oil) for early detection of economic recession. # Data Collection The dataset was collected from two agencies in Nigeria, NiMet and the Ministry of Finance. This data collected from NiMet, which spans from 2010 – 2023. The dataset focusses on southwest, Nigeria. The southwest has a history of flood disasters. The crude oil data collected is from the Ministry of Finance include GDP etc. The oil and gas sector were the section of the GDP that was used. This is because crude oil is a major driver of the Nigerian economy. The data also spans from 2010 to 2023. US crude oil price from 2000 – 2023. This data is recorded monthly, and the price is in dollars. Nigeria CrudeOil Price from 2010 – 2023. This data is recorded quarterly, and the price is in Naira. # Data Exploration Seasonal Decomposition This is one of the methods in which seasonality and trend can be detected in a time series. It contains three components’ Trends, Seasonality, Resid. Below show the seasonal decomposition of US Crude oil price and Nigeria crude oil price. This is US Crude oil seasonal decomposition This is the seasonal decomposition of US crude oil with a rising trend, revealing the underlying movements of the data point. The residual plot is centered more around zero, even though there are some scattered points which might indicate the presence of noise. Looking at the seasonal plot, there is a little variation of seasonality but can be ignored. This is Nigeria cr …