Purity-Creatives/fmcg-demand-forecasting-kenya

FMCG demand forecasting & RGM analytics — Brookside Dairy Kenya. Prophet forecasting (96.4% accuracy), promotion ROI, SKU margin analysis. East African market context. # FMCG Demand Forecasting & RGM Analytics - Kenya Dairy Market **Author:** Purity **Sector:** FMCG / Consumer Goods - Revenue Growth Management **Market:** Kenya / East Africa **Tools:** Python, Prophet, pandas, matplotlib, openpyxl --- ## Project Overview End-to-end FMCG demand forecasting and Revenue Growth Management (RGM) analytics built on a synthetic Kenyan dairy FMCG dataset modelled on the Brookside Dairy Kenya portfolio - East Africa's largest dairy manufacturer (KES ~17B revenue, 40% Danone-owned, operations in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda). Covers four of the five core RGM levers: demand forecasting, promotion ROI analysis, portfolio assortment and margin analysis, and seasonality-driven trade planning. Built to demonstrate the analytical capabilities required in an FMCG RGM Analytics & Demand Manager role. > **Note:** All data is synthetically generated for portfolio demonstration purposes. Revenue figures, volumes, and margins are modelled - not sourced from Brookside Dairy's actual financial records. --- ## Project Results | Metric | Result | |--------|--------| | Dataset | Synthetic Kenya dairy FMCG portfolio | | Records | 9,420 weekly SKU/channel observations | | Categories | 4 (Fresh Milk, Fermented, Cheese & Butter, Juices) | | SKUs | 12 | | Channels | 5 (Supermarkets, General Trade, Wholesale, Convenience, Institutions) | | Total Revenue | KES 4.58B (2022–2024) | | Average Gross Margin | 45.0% | | Forecast Model | Facebook Prophet (multiplicative seasonality) | | Forecast Accuracy | **96.4%** (MAPE: 3.6%) | | Benchmark | >65% at SKU level - **MET** | | Promotion Volume Uplift | **+32.3%** | | Promotion Revenue Uplift | **+18.4%** | | Peak Demand Month | December (Seasonality Index: 125) | --- ## RGM Framework - Five Levers ### Lever 1: Demand Forecasting Weekly revenue forecasts at SKU/channel level using Facebook Prophet with multiplicative seasonality - achieving **96.4% forecast accuracy** against a 3-month holdout period. Key findi …