rachaelrichard/girls-education-roi-kenya

# Girls' Education ROI Model — Kenya ## Project Overview This project is a financial model built in Google Sheets that estimates the lifetime return on investment (ROI) of four years of secondary education for a girl in rural Kenya. The model applies a discounted cash flow (DCF) framework to compare the direct costs of schooling against projected increases in lifetime earnings, using academic research on returns to education in Sub-Saharan Africa. The project was developed to connect my background in girls' education advocacy through the Mwanga Initiative in Kitui County, Kenya, with financial analysis methods used in development finance and impact investing. ## Data Sources 1. Psacharopoulos, G., & Patrinos, H. A. (2018). Returns to investment in education: A decennial review of the global literature. *Education Economics*, 26(5), 445–458. — source for the 9–10% annual wage premium per year of schooling (global average). 2. Ozier, O. (2015). The Impact of Secondary Schooling in Kenya: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7384. — Kenya-specific evidence that secondary schooling increases human capital and shifts workers out of low-skill informal employment into formal employment. 3. Baseline annual income (KES 70,000) and schooling cost (KES 20,000 per year) are working estimates based on typical rural Kenyan household income levels and public secondary school fee structures. These are flagged as estimates intended to be refined with Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) Labour Force Survey data in future iterations. ## Model Structure Built in Google Sheets across four tabs: - **Assumptions** - all input values with sources and notes - **Model** — step-by-step DCF calculations referencing Assumptions tab - **Scenarios** — sensitivity analysis across low, base, and high wage premium assumptions - **Summary** — key findings, scenario table, and chart ## Methodology 1. Estimate total cost of four years of secondary s …