rachel93augesty-del/ethiopia-fi-forecast

Forecasting Ethiopia’s financial inclusion using Global Findex indicators. The project analyzes access and digital payment usage, models policy and product impacts, and forecasts inclusion trends (2025–2027) with uncertainty, supported by an interactive dashboard Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting – Capstone Project Project Overview This capstone project focuses on improving the previousely done project focusing on analyzing and forecasting financial inclusion in Ethiopia, leveraging the Global Findex Database 2025 along with supplementary regional and gender-disaggregated data. The project aims to provide actionable insights for policymakers, financial institutions, and stakeholders to improve account ownership, mobile money adoption, and overall digital payment usage across the country. Objectives Assess historical trends in financial inclusion metrics: account ownership, formal accounts, and mobile money adoption. Identify gaps in the dataset, including temporal, regional, and gender-specific data gaps. Enrich data with event impacts (e.g., Telebirr launch) to analyze adoption drivers. Develop forecasts for financial inclusion indicators (2025–2027) under baseline and scenario assumptions. Create an interactive dashboard to visualize trends, forecast projections, and scenario comparisons. Success Metrics The success of this project is evaluated against the following indicators: Account Ownership (Access): Projected growth to ~68–70% by 2027. Digital Payment Usage (Mobile Money): Upward trend with ~66% active users by 2027. Event Impact Modeling: Alignment with historical adoption patterns (e.g., policy and product launches). Project Scope Historical Analysis: Trends in account ownership, formal account adoption, and mobile money usage from 2011 to 2025. Disaggregation: Data analyzed by gender and region to identify inclusion gaps. Forecasting: Baseline and scenario projections to support strategic financial planning. Event Analysis: Integration of key events and product launches to understand adoption dynamics. Dashboard: Interactive visualization of historical trends, forecasts, and scenario comparisons. Deliverables Completed (Interim Submission) Reviewed the original dataset and project repor …