RahemetGisho/ethiopia-fi-forecast

End-to-end forecasting pipeline for Ethiopia's Global Findex Access & Usage indicators- data enrichment, event-impact modeling, 2025-2027 forecasts, and a Streamlit dashboard. # 🇪🇹 Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting Forecasting Ethiopia's financial inclusion progress (2025–2027) using time series analysis, event-impact modeling, and an interactive Streamlit dashboard. This project was completed as part of the 10 Academy Artificial Intelligence Mastery Program. --- # Business Problem Ethiopia is experiencing rapid growth in digital financial services through initiatives such as Telebirr, M-Pesa, and the National Financial Inclusion Strategy (NFIS-II). Despite this expansion, account ownership increased by only three percentage points between 2021 and 2024. Financial institutions, policymakers, and development partners need a data-driven system that can: - Understand the factors driving financial inclusion - Quantify the impact of policies, infrastructure, and product launches - Forecast future financial inclusion trends - Support evidence-based policy and investment decisions --- # Overview This project develops an end-to-end financial inclusion forecasting system that: - Explores and enriches Ethiopia's financial inclusion dataset - Performs exploratory data analysis to identify trends and gaps - Models the effects of policy changes, infrastructure investments, and digital financial product launches - Forecasts financial inclusion indicators for 2025–2027 - Presents findings through an interactive Streamlit dashboard The forecasting system combines trend regression with an event-impact model calibrated using Ethiopia-specific historical data. --- # Features - Financial inclusion data enrichment - Exploratory data analysis (EDA) - Event-impact modeling - Scenario-based forecasting - Interactive Streamlit dashboard - Downloadable forecast datasets - Policy target tracking - Interactive visualizations --- # Dashboard Pages ### Overview - Financial inclusion KPI cards - Growth rate summaries - P2P vs ATM transaction comparison - Mobile money activity metrics ### Trends - Interactive time-series visualization - Date r …