From funnel gap to first loan - how wallet transaction signals and stratified experimentation drove NTC conversion across African markets.
# π― First Loan Fee Waiver Campaign β Digital Lending | Emerging African Markets
## π Overview
In digital lending platforms operating across emerging African markets, a significant portion of eligible customers never convert to their first loan β despite being active on the platform. This project addresses that gap through a **data-driven, incentive-led acquisition campaign** targeting high-potential New-to-Credit (NTC) customers using mobile money wallet transaction signals.
The campaign offered eligible customers a **loan application fee waiver** β conditional on timely repayment β to reduce the psychological and financial barrier of taking a first loan.
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## π Problem Statement
Analysis of the customer funnel revealed that **~51% of the eligible base had never taken a single loan**, despite being active wallet users with healthy transaction behavior. These customers represented a significant untapped revenue opportunity.
**Key Question:**
> *Can we convert high-wallet-activity New-to-Credit (NTC) customers into first-time borrowers by offering them a time-bound application fee waiver?*
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## π‘ Campaign Design
### Offer Structure
| Market | Fee Waiver | Condition |
|--------|-----------|-----------|
| Uganda | 2% application fee waived | Repay within loan tenure |
| Tanzania | 6% application fee waived | Repay within loan tenure |
The offer was designed to be **self-liquidating** β customers who repay on time cost the business only the waived fee, while generating full interest revenue and establishing a repayment behavior pattern.
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## π§ Methodology
### Step 1 β Funnel Analysis
- Pulled the **end-to-end customer funnel report** to quantify the NTC gap
- Identified that 51% of eligible customers had **NTC = 1** (New-to-Credit, zero loan history) despite platform eligibility
- Cross-validated with **mobile money wallet transaction data** to confirm active financial behavior among this segment
### Step 2 β Base Generation & Segmentation
Rule-based β¦