rangiho/Malaria-in-Sub-Saharan-Africa

This project examines how malaria burden affects development in Sub-Saharan Africa using 2000–2023 panel data. While baseline exposure shows no aggregate effects, mosquito nets consistently improve GDP and education outcomes, especially in poorer countries. Code and results are open sourced. **Overview** This repository contains my empirical analysis of malaria’s long-run economic and educational impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa. Motivated by the historical exclusion of Africa from the 1955 Global Malaria Eradication Programme (GMEP), I study whether early malaria burden continues to influence GDP per capita and schooling outcomes today. I use a country-year panel from 2000 to 2023 and apply causal inference techniques, robustness checks, and intervention-specific analysis to understand how malaria prevention and treatment shape development trajectories. **Research Questions** Does baseline malaria endemicity (pre-2005) predict long-run economic or educational outcomes? Do malaria interventions (mosquito nets, antimalarial drugs, vector control) generate observable development gains? Are effects heterogeneous across income groups? Does the historical decision to bypass Africa in GMEP continue to shape inequality today? **Data Sources** Malaria burden: Malaria Atlas Project (incidence, prevalence, mortality) Economic outcomes: World Bank World Development Indicators Institutions: Worldwide Governance Indicators Climate & Geography: FAO, WDI Education: UNESCO Institute for Statistics Sample excludes Cabo Verde due to missing malaria data. **Methods** I estimate a series of models including: Panel econometrics with country and year fixed effects Difference-in-differences using pre-2005 endemicity Robustness checks with lagged controls Intervention-specific regressions (ITNs, treatment coverage, IRS) Income-group heterogeneity analysis I also validate agricultural and institutional controls using exogenous climate and governance measures. **Key Findings** Baseline malaria burden shows no significant aggregate effect on GDP or schooling after 2005. Mosquito nets are strongly associated with higher income and education levels. Drug-based treatment shows weaker or sometimes negative associations. Low-income countries experience the stro …