Redeat-Birhane/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting System A comprehensive forecasting system that tracks Ethiopia's digital financial transformation using time series methods, event impact modeling, and scenario analysis. --- # 📌 Project Overview This project was developed for Selam Analytics to help stakeholders (development finance institutions, mobile money operators, and the National Bank of Ethiopia) understand and predict financial inclusion trends in Ethiopia. ## Business Context Ethiopia is undergoing a rapid digital financial transformation: - Telebirr has grown to over 54 million users since launching in 2021 - M-Pesa entered the market in 2023 and now has over 10 million users - P2P digital transfers have surpassed ATM cash withdrawals for the first time - Yet only 49% of Ethiopian adults have a financial account (2024 Global Findex) ## What This System Does - Analyzes historical financial inclusion data (2011-2024) - Models how events (product launches, policies, infrastructure) affect inclusion - Forecasts Account Ownership and Digital Payment Usage for 2025-2027 - Visualizes insights through an interactive dashboard --- # 🎯 Target Indicators ## Access (Account Ownership) **Definition:** Share of adults with an account at a financial institution or using mobile money - Historical: 14% (2011) → 49% (2024) - Target: 70% by 2025 (NFIS-II) ## Usage (Digital Payments) **Definition:** Share of adults using mobile money, cards, or digital payments **Key Metrics:** - Mobile money accounts - P2P transactions - Active users --- # 📂 Repository Structure ethiopia-fi-forecast/ │ ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Original datasets │ │ ├── ethiopia_fi_unified_data.csv │ │ └── reference_codes.csv │ └── processed/ # Enriched analysis-ready data │ ├── notebooks/ │ ├── task1_exploration.py # Data exploration & enrichment │ ├── task2_eda.py # Exploratory Data Analysis │ ├── task3_impact_modeling.py # Event impact modeling │ └── task4_forecasting.py # Forecasting Access & …