rehabib/East-African-Cross-Border-Trade

Finding Suspicious Volume Drops That Signal Smuggling or Conflict Summary # East-African-Cross-Border-Trade Finding Suspicious Volume Drops That Signal Smuggling or Conflict Summary Introduction: Analysing trade dynamics using FEWS NET Cross Border Trade Kenya, Uganda, Somalia This project investigates which border crossing points show anomalous trade volume drops that correlate with known conflict events or policy changes, revealing the informal trade network's vulnerability points. Since cross border trade in East Africa is highly sensitive to climate, policy and conflict, this analysis helps a lot. Overall, this project demonstrates the value of time series analysis and anomaly detection in understanding informal trade networks. By identifying patterns of disruption and instability, such Analysis can support better decision making for food security, trade policy, and regional stability in East Africa.