RESAN-Nigeria/Project-Foresight-Africa

Open-source AI platform integrating DHIS2 malaria surveillance data with climatic variables (ERA5, CHIRPS) to predict climate-driven malaria surges 2–4 weeks in advance across Northwest Nigeria. Developed by Resilient Systems Alliance Nigeria (RESAN). UNICEF Climate Ventures 2026. # Project Foresight Africa **An open-source AI platform predicting climate-driven malaria surges 2 to 4 weeks in advance to protect children in Northwest Nigeria.** Developed by the Resilient Systems Alliance Nigeria (RESAN) UNICEF Climate Ventures Cohort 2026|MIT License --- ## The Problem Every August, malaria cases in Northwest Nigeria surge by 20-35% in a single month. In August 2022, confirmed cases across Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara jumped from 328,048 to 444,200 an increase of 116,152 cases in 30 days. Routine DHIS2 surveillance showed zero warning in July. During this surge, 94.4% of confirmed cases received no ACT treatment not because drugs were absent from Nigeria, but because commodity pre-positioning requires 2–4 weeks of advance notice that the health system did not have. ## The Solution Project Foresight integrates: - **DHIS2** malaria case surveillance data (weekly extraction via API) - **ERA5** rainfall accumulation and temperature anomaly data - **CHIRPS** precipitation datasets - **Machine learning** surge prediction model trained on 2022–2024 data Output: A weekly Transmission Risk Score (TRS) per state and LGA, triggering anticipatory alerts to State MOH malaria focal persons 2–4 weeks before surge onset. ## Validation Evidence The August surge pattern is reproducible every year: | Year | July Cases | August Cases | Surge | |------|-----------|-------------|-------| | 2022 | 328,048 | 444,200 | +35.4% | | 2023 | 291,155 | 355,439 | +22.1% | | 2024 | 272,607 | 326,842 | +19.9% | July DHIS2 data showed -0.6% MoM in 2022, no warning signal. July rainfall accumulation would have flagged the surge 2-4 weeks earlier. ## Study States - Kebbi State, Nigeria - Sokoto State, Nigeria - Zamfara State, Nigeria ## Principal Investigator Michael Audu, MPH, MIAD, DrPH(c) Founder & Director, RESAN ORCID: 0009-0009-2931-8964 ## License MIT License - see LICENSE file ## Status Under active development with UNICEF Climate Ventures 2 …