Open data method for prioritising education continuity risk in conflict zones, with a North East Nigeria demonstration.
# Education Continuity Priority Map
A transferable open data method for prioritising areas at risk of education
disruption in conflict affected regions. Demonstrated on North East Nigeria
(Borno, Adamawa, Yobe, the BAY states).
**Live artifact:**
rezhyarfakhir-dev.github.io
## What this is
A composite priority score is computed for each of the 65 BAY LGAs from four
indicators:
1. ACLED political violence events, 2020 to 2026
2. IOM DTM Round 50 displaced individuals
3. **OCHA JIAF 2026 Education sector severity (1 to 5)**
4. Inverse of school age population within 5 km of an education facility (HeiGIT 2026)
Each indicator is min max normalised to `[0, 1]`. The composite is a
**pairwise** unweighted mean (`skipna=True`): indicators 1 to 3 cover all
65 LGAs, while indicator 4 (HeiGIT) is missing for 35 of 65 LGAs. Those
35 LGAs are scored on the 3 available indicators rather than imputed to a
worst-case value. Each LGA carries a `score_basis` flag
(`4_indicators` or `3_indicators_no_heigit`) which is surfaced in the
popup. See `docs/missing_data_policy.md`.
The composite is tercile classified into **high, medium, lower** priority
and rendered as a choropleth on a Leaflet map, with full per LGA detail in
the popups.
All 65 LGAs are scored, including the 21 in Adamawa. The OCHA JIAF
Education layer is the official 2026 humanitarian community estimate. It
resolves a state wide data ceiling that affected an earlier iMMAP 2019
school list (zero closures recorded across the whole of Adamawa). The
iMMAP figures still appear in the popup as context but no longer drive
the classification. See `docs/adamawa_decision.md` for the full story.
## Why North East Nigeria
This case is a *demonstration only*. North East Nigeria is used as a
reference because it is data rich (every required source is published), it
exposes a real data quality problem (the Adamawa school status ceiling), and
the same pipeline can be re-run against any …