Riaan-Rossouw/beyond-retaliation

Replication package for "Beyond Retaliation: How South Africa Can Effectively Counter the USA's Tariff Wars" (GDyn v3.6, GTAP 11) # Beyond Retaliation — replication package Closure files, shock files and summary results for the simulations reported in > Rossouw, R., Cameron, M.J. and Naudé, W. (2026). *Beyond Retaliation: How South > Africa Can Effectively Counter the USA's Tariff Wars.* **Model:** GDyn v3.6 (GTAP-Dynamic), solved with GEMPACK / RunDynam. **Database:** GTAP 11, 2017 reference year, aggregated to **16 sectors × 7 regions × 5 factors** using `Aggregation/gtp15_7.agg`. Neither the GDyn model source nor the GTAP 11 database is redistributed here — both are licensed separately. See Obtaining the model and data. --- ## Scenarios | # | Name | Question it answers | |---|---|---| | 1 | USA reciprocal tariff on South African goods | What does the tariff shock cost? | | 2 | Sc 1 + unilateral 50% tariff cut + calibrated real depreciation | Does liberalisation help? | | 3 | Sc 1 + USA tariffs on third countries + global retaliation | What does a global trade war do? | | 4 | Sc 2 + Sc 3 | Does the policy response work inside a trade war? | | 5 | Sc 4 + realisation of DSM export potential | What is export diversification worth? | | 6 | Sc 1 + South African retaliation only | **Is retaliation optimal?** | Scenario 6 is the clean test of the retaliation question. Scenario 3 cannot answer it, because it bundles South Africa's retaliation with USA tariffs on China, the EU and others. ## Run sequence Each scenario runs 2018→2030 in annual steps. Periods 2018–2024 are baseline only. | Sc | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028–2030 | |---|---|---|---|---| | 1 | POL1 + `TTSS25` | POL1 | POL1 | POL1 | | 2 | POL2 + `SAPR25` | POL2 + `SAPR26` | POL2 + `SAPR27` | POL2 + `SAPR28–30` | | 3 | POL1 + `TTSSW25` | POL1 + `TTSSW26` | POL1 + `TTSSW27` | POL1 | | 4 | POL2 + `SAPRW25` | POL2 + `SAPRW26` | POL2 + `SAPRW27` | POL2 + `SAPRW28–30` | | 5 | POL2 + `SAPRW25` | POL3F + `SADSM26` | POL3F + `SADSM27` | POL3F + `SADSM28–30` | | 6 | POL1 + `TTSS25` | POL1 + `TTSRET26` | POL1 + `TTSRET27` | POL1 | Base case: …