rihab943/Moroccan-electricity-demand-forecasting

Forecasting Morocco’s electricity demand to 2050 using GDP-driven ARIMAX time-series modeling. # Electricity Demand Forecasting in Morocco ## Overview This project focuses on forecasting electricity demand in Morocco using historical electricity consumption and economic data. The objective is to understand how electricity demand has evolved over time and build a forecasting framework that can be used to estimate future demand up to 2050. GDP is used as an explanatory variable to capture the relationship between economic activity and electricity consumption. The project currently combines historical demand data from 2000–2025 with GDP data and future assumptions to prepare the dataset for long-term forecasting. ## Project Structure ``` Moroccan-electricity-demand-forecasting/ │ ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ │ └── processed/ │ ├── notebooks/ │ ├── 01_Data_Exploration.ipynb │ ├── 02_Data_preparation_for_modeling.ipynb │ └── 03_modeling.ipynb │ ├── results/ │ ├── requirements.txt └── README.md ``` ## Data The project uses two main datasets: * **Electricity demand:** annual electricity demand in TWh for Morocco, covering 2000–2025. * **GDP:** Morocco's GDP data, with historical data extending to 2025. The two datasets are merged using the year as the common variable, resulting in: ``` year | demand_twh | gdp ``` The historical dataset currently contains 2000–2025. ### Future GDP For the long-term forecasting period, GDP is extended from the 2025 reference value using an assumed annual growth rate of **3.2%**. This gives a projected GDP series up to 2050. ### Future Electricity Demand Demand values are available through 2030 from the current project assumptions/data. Demand beyond 2030 is left to the forecasting models. Therefore, the final modeling dataset covers: * **2000–2025:** historical demand and GDP * **2026–2030:** demand projections/reference values and projected GDP * **2031–2050:** GDP projections, with demand to be forecasted ## Notebooks ### 01 — Data Exploration `01_Data_Exploration.ipynb` This notebook covers the initial expl …