Rpvermaak/sifra-potato-yield-analysis

A comparative geospatial analysis of Sifra potato yields across micro-climates in the Soutpansberg region, South Africa. # The Sifra Paradox: Multi-Site Potato Yield Analysis **A data-driven investigation into why Sifra potatoes failed in one season but excelled in the next.** --- ## Executive Summary A commercial potato producer in South Africa's Soutpansberg region experienced puzzling yield results: **complete failure** with the Sifra variety in 2024, followed by **excellent performance** in 2025. This project uses satellite imagery and remote sensing data to uncover the environmental factors behind this "Sifra Paradox." ### Key Findings | Finding | Evidence | |---------|----------| | **Location matters most** | The North farm (Rain Shadow) consistently outperforms the South farm (Mist Belt) across all years | | **Humidity is the culprit** | The 2024 failure coincides with the mist season (June-July), supporting late blight as a factor | | **Recovery shows better timing** | 2025 success shows more sustainable growth patterns, suggesting improved seasonal timing | ### Recommendations 1. **Prioritize North farm for Sifra** — Lower disease pressure from drier conditions 2. **Use disease-resistant varieties in South** — High humidity favors fungal diseases 3. **Implement fungicide protocols May-July** — Target the critical mist season window 4. **Monitor with satellite NDVI** — Early stress detection enables rapid intervention --- ## Project Context ### The Study Area The Soutpansberg mountain range in Limpopo Province, South Africa creates two distinct micro-climates: | Location | Climate Type | Characteristics | |----------|--------------|-----------------| | **South Farm** | Mist Belt | Higher humidity, cooler temperatures, frequent fog | | **North Farm** | Rain Shadow | Drier conditions, warmer nights, more sunlight | **Coordinates:** - South Farm (Mist Belt): `-23.1148, 29.5100` - North Farm (Rain Shadow): `-22.8111, 29.4217` ### The Question > *Why did Sifra potatoes fail in 2024 but excel in 2025, despite similar management practices?* --- ## Data Sources & …