ShreyaJari/carbon-verification

Independent satellite based MRV toolkit that verifies a real carbon credit project's registry claimed sequestration against GEDI biomass, Sentinel-2 canopy data, and OCO-2/3 atmospheric CO2 case study: Kachung Forest Project, Uganda (CDM 4653). # Carbon Verification Toolkit Independent, satellite-based measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) of a real, publicly documented carbon credit project — checking a registry's claimed sequestration against GEDI biomass, Sentinel-2 canopy data, and OCO-2/3 atmospheric CO2, rather than taking the claim at face value. --- ## Overview Voluntary and compliance carbon markets have repeatedly faced criticism for credits that overstate actual sequestration, in part because registries have historically relied on self-reported or ground-survey-based claims that are difficult to independently verify at scale. This toolkit builds an independent verification pipeline against one real project and reports the result honestly — including where the independent method itself needed correcting along the way. **This is a methodology demonstration, not audit-grade MRV.** No registry figures are estimated or fabricated — every claimed number used here comes directly from the project's own CDM Project Design Document (PDD) and monitoring/verification reports. ## Case study: Kachung Forest Project (KFP) | | | |---|---| | **Registry** | CDM Project 4653, "Kachung Forest Project: Afforestation on Degraded Lands" | | **Location** | Kachung Central Forest Reserve, Dokolo District, Uganda | | **Coordinates** | 1.9822–2.0422°N, 32.9153–32.9953°E | | **Area** | 2,099 ha across 5 CDM-eligible blocks | | **Species** | ~90% *Pinus caribaea hondurensis*; remainder eucalyptus, *Maesopsis eminii* | | **Methodology** | AR-AM0004 v4 | | **Registered** | 4 April 2011 | | **Registry-claimed issued CERs** | 30,492 tCO2e (2006–2012) + 314,672 tCO2e (2013–2020) = **345,164 tCO2e cumulative** | KFP was selected because, unlike most afforestation credits (which report only ex-ante projections), it has **real ex-post issued CERs** backed by verified monitoring reports — giving this toolkit an actual figure to check against rather than a projection. Hajdu et al. (2016) previously used Land …