Simbogj/ethiopia-fi-forecast

Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia # Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting System **Build a forecasting system that tracks Ethiopia's digital financial transformation using time series methods** --- ## Overview This project develops a financial inclusion forecasting system for Ethiopia, commissioned by a consortium including development finance institutions, mobile money operators, and the National Bank of Ethiopia. **Ethiopia's Digital Finance Landscape:** - **Telebirr**: 54.84M users since May 2021 - **M-Pesa Ethiopia**: 10.8M users since August 2023 - **Historic Milestone**: P2P digital transfers now exceed ATM cash withdrawals - **Current Inclusion**: 49% of adults have financial accounts (Global Findex 2024) --- ## Project Structure ``` ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Original starter dataset │ └── processed/ # Enriched datasets │ ├── ethiopia_fi_unified_data_enriched.csv │ ├── ethiopia_fi_impact_links_enriched.csv │ └── data_enrichment_log.md ├── notebooks/ │ ├── task1_data_exploration.ipynb │ ├── task2_eda.ipynb │ ├── task3_impact_modeling.ipynb │ └── task4_forecasting.ipynb ├── dashboard/ │ └── app.py # Streamlit dashboard ├── reports/ │ └── figures/ # Generated visualizations ├── src/ │ └── enrich_data.py └── README.md ``` --- ## Quick Start ### 1. Install Dependencies ```bash pip install -r requirements.txt ``` ### 2. Run the Dashboard ```bash cd dashboard streamlit run app.py ``` The dashboard will open at `localhost` ### 3. View Notebooks ```bash jupyter notebook notebooks/ ``` --- ## Dashboard Features The interactive Streamlit dashboard includes: ### 📊 Overview Page - Key metrics summary cards - P2P/ATM Crossover indicator - Growth rate highlights ### 📈 Trends Page - Telebirr growth trajectory - M-Pesa Ethiopia metrics - Digital payment transaction trends - Gender gap analysis ### 🔮 Forecasts Page - Account Ownership forecasts ( …