sinendirirsa021-prog/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia (2026–2027) ## Project Overview **Client:** National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE), Development Finance Institutions (DFIs), and Mobile Money Operators **Consultant:** Selam Analytics **Project Type:** Financial Inclusion Forecasting and Decision Support System **Country:** Ethiopia This project develops a forecasting system to analyze and predict Ethiopia's financial inclusion progress for 2026–2027. The objective is to identify key drivers of financial inclusion, understand the impact of digital financial services, and provide scenario-based forecasts to support policy and business decisions. The analysis focuses on four main dimensions: * **Access** – account ownership, mobile money availability, digital infrastructure * **Usage** – digital payments, P2P transactions, mobile money activity * **Gender Inclusion** – gender gaps in financial access and usage * **Affordability** – cost barriers affecting adoption The final output includes: * Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) * Event impact analysis * Financial inclusion forecasting model * Interactive Streamlit dashboard --- # Business Problem Despite rapid growth in mobile money services such as Telebirr and M-Pesa, Ethiopia still faces challenges in achieving broad financial inclusion. Key questions addressed: 1. How has financial access changed over time? 2. What factors are driving digital financial adoption? 3. Has Ethiopia transitioned from cash-based transactions to digital payments? 4. What impact do major events and policies have on financial inclusion? 5. What is the expected financial inclusion rate by 2027? --- # Project Structure ``` ethiopia-fi-forecast/ │ ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ │ │ └── ethiopia_fi_unified_data.xlsx │ │ │ └── processed/ │ └── ethiopia_fi_enriched.csv │ ├── notebooks/ │ ├── eda_analysis.ipynb │ ├── event_impact_model.ipynb │ └── forecasting.ipynb │ ├── src/ │ ├── data_loader.py │ └── impact_loader.py │ ├── dashbo …