SmartDvi/UNILAG_PROJECT

An end-to-end data engineering and machine learning pipeline for forecasting Nigeria's retail petrol prices, detecting structural market breaks, and generating actionable intelligence for policymakers and MSMEs # 🇳🇬 Nigeria Retail Fuel Price Intelligence System > **Uni Dissertation Project — Distinction Track** > An end-to-end data engineering and machine learning pipeline for forecasting Nigeria's retail petrol prices, detecting structural market breaks, and generating actionable intelligence for policymakers and MSMEs. --- --- ## Table of Contents - Project Overview - Research Questions - Dataset - Architecture - Kernel Map - Key Insights Implemented - Tech Stack - Project Structure - Getting Started - Data Sources - Outputs - Model Architecture - Results - Policy Applications - Thesis Citation - References - License --- ## Project Overview Nigeria's retail fuel market underwent a historic structural transformation in May 2023 when the incoming Tinubu administration removed decades-old petroleum subsidies. This event — combined with the Dangote Refinery coming online in 2024 — shifted the market from a state-controlled import monopoly (NNPCL) to an **asymmetric duopoly** with volatile, market-reflective pricing. This project builds a **production-grade forecasting and intelligence system** that: - Engineers a clean analytical data warehouse from raw WFP price data using **SQL (DuckDB)** - Detects structural market breaks using the **PELT change-point detection algorithm** - Trains a **2-layer multivariate LSTM** with a custom trust-weighted loss function - Generates a **3-month early-warning fuel price forecast** to help MSMEs hedge logistics costs - Maps **regional price disparities** to support targeted government cash-transfer programmes - Produces **fully interactive Plotly visualisations** for all analytical outputs --- ## Research Questions 1. **Duopoly Shift** — Can data distinguish price hikes caused by global crude shocks (external) from domestic refinery bottlenecks (internal)? 2. **MSME Vulnerability** — Which months trigger a "volatility squeeze" where MoM price surges erode MSME profit margins? 3. **Regional Disparity** — Which Nigerian s …