soltsega/Forecasting-Financial-Inclusion-in-Ethiopia

Build a forecasting system that tracks Ethiopia's digital financial transformation using time series methods # Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia An end-to-end analytical framework designed to forecast financial inclusion trajectories in Ethiopia. This project integrates unified datasets, explicitly models policy-impact relationships, and provides a modular architecture for scalable time-series forecasting and policy simulation. ## 🚀 Key Features - **Modular Design Pattern**: Centralized technical infrastructure in `src/` for data lifecycle management, visualization, and configuration. - **Advanced Data Enrichment**: Integrates 2024 mobile money baselines and structural policy events (e.g., IMF Extended Credit Facility) into the unified dataset. - **Explicit Causal Linkage**: Implements `parent_id`-based `impact_link` modeling to track the relationship between specific events (Telebirr/M-Pesa launches) and their quantitative impacts on digital inclusion. - **Interactive EDA**: Deep-dive exploratory analysis powered by robust processing utilities. - **Modular Dashboarding**: Real-time visualization of digital pillars via a Streamlit-based interface. - **Automated Verification**: Integrated test suite for data transformations and loading logic. --- ## 🏗 System Architecture The project follows a modular scientific computing structure to ensure reproducibility and maintainability. ```mermaid graph TD A[Raw Data] --> B[Notebook 01: Enrichment] B --> C{Data Loader Utility} C --> D[Processed Enriched Data] D --> E[Notebook 02: EDA] D --> F[Dashboard: Streamlit] G[src/utils] -.-> C G -.-> E G -.-> F ``` - **`src/config.py`**: The single source of truth for filesystem paths and plotting aesthetics. - **`src/utils/data_loader.py`**: High-level API for data ingestion, categorical normalization, and datetime alignment. - **`src/utils/plotting.py`**: Domain-specific visualization wrappers for temporal coverage and distribution analysis. --- ## 📊 Data & Enrichment Pipeline ### 1. Unified Dataset Construction The framework utilizes a long-format schema that accomm …