solxire88/algerian-food-pricing

Forecasting Food Prices in Algeria — a macro-micro time-series analysis (2015–2025) combining local market prices and national indicators to explain and staple food inflation. # Forecasting Food Prices in Algeria: A Macro-Micro Analytical Approach ## Project Background Algeria, a North African country heavily reliant on food imports, has experienced a concerning rise in staple food prices in recent years. As a data analyst targeting public-sector economic research, I was curious in identifying **macro-level and micro-level contributors** to this inflation, with a focus on the following business-critical questions: - Are Algeria’s increasing exports and decreasing imports tightening domestic food supply? - Is domestic food production keeping up with demand and cost pressures? - How is the Algerian Dinar's depreciation impacting food affordability? By combining local commodity-level price data (e.g., rice, pasta, eggs) with national indicators like food production index, exchange rates, and import/export values, we can build a multi-layered picture of Algeria’s food economy. --- Insights and recommendations are provided across key areas: - **Trade Dynamics and Food Supply** - **Agricultural Production and Food Security** - **Currency Depreciation and Import Costs** --- > The notebook used to clean the food supply data can be found here > The notebook used to clean the indicators data can be found here > The Dashboards can be found here --- # Data Structure & Initial Checks This project is based on two key datasets: - **Local Market Pricing Dataset (`food.csv`)** Contains monthly prices for commodities (e.g., rice, pasta, eggs) across two Algerian markets from 2015–2025. _Source_ | Feature | Description | | ------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | **province** | The top-level administrative region within Algeria where data was collected. | | **town** | The municipality or town within the province. | | **market** | Name of the specific marketplace or bazaar. …