Suabdu9/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# 🇪🇹 Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia ## Project Overview This project develops a forecasting system for Ethiopia's digital financial transformation. Selam Analytics was engaged by a consortium of: - Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) - Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) - National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) to understand the drivers of financial inclusion and forecast future Access and Usage outcomes. The project answers: 1. What factors drive financial inclusion? 2. How do policies, products and infrastructure affect adoption? 3. What is the expected trajectory for 2025-2027? --- # Objectives The system focuses on: ## Access Account Ownership Rate: Percentage of adults owning a financial account. ## Usage Digital payment adoption: Percentage of adults making or receiving digital payments. --- # Project Structure ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── .github/workflows/ │ └── unittests.yml ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Starter dataset │ │ ├── ethiopia_fi_unified_data.csv │ │ └── reference_codes.csv │ └── processed/ # Analysis-ready data ├── notebooks/ │ └── README.md ├── src/ │ ├── __init__.py ├── dashboard/ │ └── app.py ├── tests/ │ └── __init__.py ├── models/ ├── reports/ │ └── figures/ ├── requirements.txt ├── README.md └── .gitignore --- # Dataset The dataset combines: ## Observations Historical measurements from: - Global Findex - National Bank of Ethiopia - Mobile operators - Infrastructure sources ## Events Examples: - Telebirr launch - Safaricom Ethiopia entry - M-Pesa launch - Fayda Digital ID rollout - EthSwitch developments ## Impact Links Modeled relationships between events and financial inclusion indicators. --- # Data Enrichment Additional records added: ## Observations Added: - Digital ID adoption - Mobile money growth - Infrastructure indicators - Gender gap indicators ## Events Added: - Mobile money launches - Regulatory milestones …