Suezan884/Kenya-CPI-Time-Series-Forecasting

Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of Kenya's Consumer Price Index (CPI) using Python, SARIMA, and Power BI. # Kenya-CPI-Time-Series-Forecasting Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of Kenya's Consumer Price Index (CPI) using Python, SARIMA, and Power BI. # Kenya Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis and Forecasting ## Overview This project applies **Time Series Analysis and Forecasting** techniques to Kenya's **Consumer Price Index (CPI) – All Items** monthly dataset. The objective was to analyze historical inflation trends, investigate seasonality and stationarity, build an accurate forecasting model using SARIMA, and develop an interactive Power BI dashboard for visualizing historical and forecasted CPI values. This project was completed as part of a **Time Series and Forecasting** course. --- ## Objectives * Perform data cleaning and preprocessing. * Conduct Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA). * Analyze trend, seasonality, and stationarity. * Perform time series decomposition. * Build and evaluate a SARIMA forecasting model. * Forecast the next 12 months of CPI values. * Develop an interactive Power BI dashboard. --- ## Dataset * **Dataset:** Kenya Consumer Price Index (CPI) * **Category:** All Items * **Frequency:** Monthly * **Period Covered:** February 2009 – March 2022 * **Forecast Horizon:** 12 Months --- ## Methodology ### Data Preparation * Imported and cleaned the monthly CPI dataset. * Converted dates into datetime format. * Prepared the data for time series analysis. ### Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) * Time Series Plot * Histogram * Box Plot * Rolling Mean * Rolling Standard Deviation ### Time Series Analysis * Seasonal Decomposition * Trend Analysis * Seasonality Analysis * Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Test ### Forecasting * SARIMA Model * Model Evaluation * 12-Month Forecast * 95% Confidence Intervals ### Dashboard Development An interactive dashboard was developed in **Microsoft Power BI** featuring: * KPI Cards * Historical CPI Trend * Forecast Trend * Rolling Mean Visualization * Forecast Confidence Interval * Forecast Table * Inte …