Tahahaha7/Temperature_Forecast_Algeria

This report gathers temperature data from 52 stations in Algeria, each station has a different timeline with the earliest measurement taken in January 1880. The data points represent the monthly average temperature. # Temperature Forecast in Algeria ## Introduction: This report gathers temperature data from 52 stations in Algeria, each station has a different timeline with an earliest measurment taken in January 1880. The data point represent the monthly average temperature. ```Source:``` GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4) Based on GHCN data from NOAA-NCEI. ```Citation:``` Menne, M.J., I. Durre, B. Korzeniewski, S. McNeal, K. Thomas, X. Yin, S. Anthony, R. Ray, R.S. Vose, B.E.Gleason, and T.G. Houston, 2012: Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily), Version 3. [indicate subset used following decimal, e.g. Version 3.12]. NOAA National Climatic Data Center. doi.org ## Location of the stations: **The color of the stations is coded based on the elevation from sea level (Red:High → Blue:Low)** ## Create the best fit model and forecast: The function ```forecast``` takes the name of the station and the number of month to forecast into the future as input. The function outputs some information about the station (number of observations, missing data, timeline of measurements). Below an example of the output for the Noumerat station in Ghardaia. ```python forecast('Noumerat', 120) ``` ``` Number of observations: 576 Number of missing data: 40 Range of data gathering: 1973-1 To 2017-9 ``` Using Facebook's Prophet package for timeseries forecast, the model is constructed using Fourier Transformation technique to generate the model with best fit resulting in the following graph The model is decomposed to highlight the long-term trend and yearly seasonality. Notice that the graph shows that average daily temperature increased by 2 degrees Celcuis from 1973 to 2017. Furthermore, the forecast projected a rise of 0.5 degree within the next decade (i.e., by 2027). The seasonality trend shows the percentage rise in temperature relative to the yearly average. The curve reaches a peack in July/August, then eventually goes down in the …