Techdee1/DebtSage

DebtSage is an advanced analytical platform that leverages machine learning to predict sovereign debt crises and provide actionable policy recommendations for African countries. Using 60+ years of fiscal data across 14 countries, our system achieves 93.4% accuracy in identifying debt distress situations. # DebtSage - AI-Powered African Sovereign Debt Crisis Analysis ### Project Overview **DebtSage** is an advanced analytical platform that leverages machine learning to predict sovereign debt crises and provide actionable policy recommendations for African countries. Using 60+ years of fiscal data across 14 countries, our system achieves 93.4% accuracy in identifying debt distress situations. --- ## 🎯 Key Features ### 1. Machine Learning Crisis Prediction - **XGBoost Classifier**: 93.4% AUC-ROC, 90.6% precision, 78.4% recall - **Random Forest & Logistic Regression**: Ensemble validation - **41 Engineered Features**: Temporal dynamics, volatility measures, fiscal ratios - **Real-time Risk Scoring**: 0-100% crisis probability for each country ### 2. Comprehensive Fiscal Analysis - **Debt Sustainability Metrics**: Debt-to-GDP, debt service burden - **Fiscal Balance Assessment**: Budget deficits, revenue efficiency - **Social Spending Analysis**: Health & education trade-offs - **Cross-Country Comparisons**: Fiscal health rankings ### 3. 5-Year Debt Projections - **Debt Dynamics Modeling**: Interest rates, GDP growth, primary balance - **Three Scenarios**: Baseline, optimistic, stress - **Sustainability Thresholds**: 70% debt-to-GDP crisis indicator ### 4. Interactive Dashboard - **5 Pages**: Overview, Country Analysis, ML Predictor, Projections, Comparisons - **Real-time Visualizations**: Plotly interactive charts - **User-Friendly Interface**: Streamlit web application --- ## 📊 Key Findings ### High-Risk Countries (ML Risk Score > 90%) - 🔴 **Nigeria**: 98.5% risk, extreme fiscal stress - 🔴 **Egypt**: 98.2% risk, large deficits ### Moderate-Risk Countries (Risk 40-60%) - 🟡 **Togo**: 51.7% risk, 67% debt-to-GDP - 🟡 **Ivory Coast**: 48.6% risk, manageable with reforms ### Top Risk Predictors (Feature Importance) 1. **Revenue-to-GDP Rolling Average** (48.4%) - Most critical factor 2. **Inflation Rate Volatility** (6.2%) - Early warning signal 3. **Trade Balance …