Temmywork/africa-heat-stress-climate-analysis

Heat stress indices, warm spell dynamics, and population exposure analysis across Africa using CESM2-WACCM6, ERA5, and SEDAC data # Heat Stress and Climate Extremes Analysis: Africa Under Temperature Overshoot and SAI Scenarios Analysis of heat stress indices, warm spell dynamics, and population exposure across Africa using CESM2-WACCM6 climate model simulations, ERA5 reanalysis data, and SEDAC population projections. This work supports ongoing PhD research at the University of Cape Town / African Climate and Development Initiative (ACDI). ## Research Context This project investigates how temperature overshoot pathways (SSP5-3.4-OS) and stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) scenarios affect heat stress across Africa, compared to a high-emissions baseline (SSP5-8.5). The analysis spans model validation through to population-level impact assessment. **Climate scenarios analyzed:** - SSP5-8.5 (high emissions, no mitigation) - SSP5-3.4-OS (overshoot with late-century mitigation) - SSP5-3.4-OS with SAI feedback (1.5°C and 2.0°C targets) - SSP5-8.5 with SAI feedback **Key datasets:** - CESM2-WACCM6 ensemble simulations (ARISE-SAI experiments) - ERA5 and ERA5-Land reanalysis (ECMWF) - SEDAC SSP5 gridded population projections (CIESIN) - IPCC AR6 reference regions for Africa ## Notebooks ### 1. `03_validation_waccm_era5_v2.ipynb` **Model Validation: CESM2-WACCM6 vs ERA5** Validates the CESM2-WACCM6 historical simulation (1985-2014) against ERA5 reanalysis over Africa. Includes raw maximum temperature (Tmax) climatology comparison, warm spell metric validation (frequency, duration, intensity, total days), seasonal decomposition, probability distribution comparisons, and regional statistics across 6 African sub-regions. *Methods:* Spatial bias maps, area-weighted RMSE/MAE/correlation, PDF overlays, percentile-based warm spell detection. ### 2. `04_bias_correction_downscaling.ipynb` **Delta-Method Bias Correction and Downscaling** Applies delta-method bias correction to downscale CESM2-WACCM6 future heat stress scenarios using ERA5-Land high-resolution climatology (~9 km). Computes Humidex, WB …