Terra-Young/ilaje-coastline-analysis

This project utilizes geospatial intelligence to conduct a comprehensive 20-year assessment of the Ilaje coastline, one of Nigeria’s most dynamic and vulnerable zones # Shoreline Change Analysis: Ilaje Coastline, Nigeria (2005–2025) **Analyst:** Eniola Akinnibi **Tools:** QGIS, QSCAT, Landsat Imagery **Study Area:** Ilaje Local Government Area Coastline, Ondo State, Nigeria ## 🌍 Executive Summary This project utilizes geospatial intelligence to conduct a comprehensive 20-year assessment of the Ilaje coastline, one of Nigeria’s most dynamic and vulnerable zones. The analysis reveals a critical state of degradation with a net land loss of **827.02 hectares** and critical zones retreating inland by over **500 meters**. Predictive models forecast an additional **430-meter retreat by 2046** without intervention, posing an existential threat to coastal communities. ## 🛰️ Methodology **Data Sources:** Comparative analysis of Landsat 7 ETM+ (2005) and Landsat 9 OLI (2025). **Technique:** Shoreline extraction was performed via **NDVI** (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), followed by statistical analysis using the **QSCAT** plugin in QGIS. **Metrics:** Net Shoreline Movement (NSM) and End Point Rate (EPR) were calculated at 50m transect intervals. ## 📊 Key Findings ### 1. Volumetric Land Loss The region has suffered a disparity between erosion and accretion, resulting in a net loss equivalent to roughly 1,170 football fields. | Metric | Area (Hectares) | Description | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Erosion** | **827.02 Ha** | Total land washed away (Red zones). | | **Accretion** | **183.66 Ha** | Land gained, mostly in unpopulated drift zones. | | **Net Impact** | **-643.36 Ha** | **Total Net Land Loss.** | ### 2. Shoreline Dynamics (NSM & EPR) The coastline is currently "under siege," with the distribution of Net Shoreline Movement (NSM) heavily skewed towards negative values. **Max Erosion:** A peak retreat of **-503.31 meters** was recorded. **Systemic Failure:** The majority of transects show negative values, confirming erosion is a regional failure rather than a localized issue. **Rate of Retreat (EPR):** *Regi …