tib-dev/Forecasting-Financial-Inclusion-in-Ethiopia

Build a forecasting system that tracks Ethiopia's digital financial transformation using time series methods # Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia **Modeling, Explaining, and Forecasting Access and Usage of Digital Financial Services** An end-to-end data science system for analyzing Ethiopia’s financial inclusion trajectory using time series analysis, event impact modeling, and scenario-based forecasting. This project builds a **policy-grade financial inclusion analytics and forecasting system** that transforms sparse survey data, operational indicators, and national events into forward-looking insights for regulators, development finance institutions, and fintech operators. --- ## Table of Contents - Project Overview - Business Context - Objectives - Global Findex Framework - Data & Features - Unified Data Model - Project Structure - System Architecture - Analytical Pipeline - Event Impact Modeling - Forecasting Approach - Dashboard - Engineering Practices - Setup & Installation - Running the Project - Technologies Used - Author --- ## Project Overview This project implements a **full financial inclusion research and forecasting workflow**, similar to what is used by central banks, multilateral institutions, and fintech strategy teams. The system covers the complete lifecycle: - Ingesting and unifying heterogeneous financial inclusion data - Enriching sparse survey data with operational and infrastructure indicators - Modeling how policies, product launches, and infrastructure investments affect outcomes - Forecasting financial inclusion under multiple scenarios - Visualizing trends, event impacts, and projections through an interactive dashboard This is a **decision-support and policy analysis system**, not a simple trend extrapolation exercise. --- ## Business Context Ethiopia is undergoing rapid digital financial transformation: - Telebirr launched in 2021 and surpassed 54M registered users - M-Pesa entered in 2023 with rapid adoption - Interoperable P2P digital transfers now exceed ATM withdrawals Yet, according to the **Global Findex 2024**, o …