tsionb/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# ethiopia-fi-forecast --- ## Task 1: Data Exploration & Enrichment ### Objective Understand the unified financial inclusion dataset for Ethiopia and enrich it with relevant indicators and events to support forecasting of **Access** and **Usage**. --- ### Dataset Overview * **Source:** Global Findex, operators, policy reports * **Total records:** **57** * **30** observations * **10** events * **14** impact links * **3** policy targets * **Time coverage:** **2011 – 2024** * **Core pillars:** * **Access** – Account Ownership * **Usage** – Digital Payments --- ### Schema Understanding All records follow a **unified schema**, differentiated by `record_type`: * `observation` → measured indicators * `event` → policies, product launches, infrastructure milestones * `impact_link` → modeled relationships between events and indicators * `target` → official national goals **Key design principle:** Events are **not pre-assigned** to pillars to avoid bias; their effects are captured via `impact_link`. --- ### Data Enrichment Performed * Added **infrastructure and ecosystem indicators** (e.g., mobile money users, interoperability milestones) * Added **missing national events** relevant to financial inclusion * Created additional **impact_link records** to model event–indicator relationships Each new record includes: * **Source URL** * **Original text** * **Confidence level (High / Medium / Low)** * **Collection date & notes** All changes are documented in **`data_enrichment_log.md`** --- ### Key Outcomes * Dataset cleaned and validated * Schema fully understood and documented * Enriched dataset ready for exploratory analysis and modeling --- ## Task 2: Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) ### Objective Analyze trends, patterns, and constraints in Ethiopia’s financial inclusion journey and identify drivers of **Access** and **Usage**. --- ### Dataset Summary * **Account Ownership (Access):** * **2011:** 14% * **2014:** 22% (**+8pp**) * **2017:** …